Friday, November 10, 2006

Bull Trend in Jeopardy?

Review of last night's trades. Another interesting session, after I logged off...sigh...The action really kicked off at 12:50pm, after the Minor PPF of Resistance at 1390.75 - and with the TREND chart pointing down.
Leg 3 of the Bear Break is now confirmed at 1393.75. My only concern right now is that we are too closed to Leg 2 of the Bear Break (1380.25). Why? Well, if we were to breach this level and PRICE goes lower, effectively we start Leg 1 of the Bull Break. Bumper? Nah...I trade LONGS & SHORTS, with the given signals I've been taught.

Which brings me to mention about this kind visitor to my blog, who, in his comments, have persistently asked me why, am I shorting when the market is "clearly oscillating" higher...Clearly, his concern was that I was not practicing what I was taught, which is to trade with the TREND, in the direction of PRICE.
My answer to him was that the market has ups & downs, and though a Bull Trend is in place, PRICE has to go down to challenge support, to go higher. Of course, I would be stupid to place myself in front of a speeding bullet train. I wouldn't short, if PRICE continues to go higher, without any failure. But there are rules, that I've learned, that allows me to SHORT (even in a Bull Trend), to take part in the pull back. And also, as a day/intra-day trader, my STOPS are pretty tight. So, although going LONG on a pull back may be the right thing to do, I may not do it, as I may be caught with an early entry for a LONG (meaning, the pull back is deeper than expected), and get stopped out for nothing (TREND chart oscillation plays an important and integral part of my decision making).

Another thing that I mention to fellow traders is that one should just concentrate on a particular index/commodity/currency future to trade, so as to understand its movements and behaviours. So much so that you know it like the palm of your hand...
An analogy here would be like understanding your wife/girlfriend. Don't you think you know her more today, then you knew of her from Day 1 ? Her traits, her strengths, her flaws, her reactions to certain issues, ideas or actions? Likewise, one would learn much more with lots & lots of screen time, when trading a particular Future.

If you are keen or curious to know more about the method I use, please go to my Mentor's website at AgMarketLogic. He has a free trial available there.
I am unable to reveal my methods any more than what is already been said/revealed on this blog. I don't even posts charts, lest I unknowingly reveal more than I am supposed to. I am bound by non-disclosure terms, which I signed with my Mentor, Bill Schamp (for his Proprietary Method). Bill was extremely kind and generous to me when I first learned his method. The acknowedgement of him as my Mentor, and the link to his website on my blog is merely my appreciation to him for his generousity & care shown towards me (PS. I do not earn any fees from him for the referrals clicking or taking up his trial, or trading course).

Don't get me wrong. I am no expert here...but I know that with every little knowledge I pick up, with every minute I place myself in front of the trading charts, and with every inch of patience that I accumulate, it will make me stronger, more discerning & more versatile in tackling the unforgiving markets.

01:45pm A fellow Singaporean Blogger, trading in Options - has exchanged links with me...Pop by his Simply Options Trading blog for a look.

10:28pm No trades. Watching PRICE movement first. TREND chart still pointing up & key PRIME Support level to watch would be 1380.25
10:35pm SHORT signal setting up.
10:37pm Nope...Consolidation instead.
10:51pm Market's pretty slow moving.
11:03pm Still no trade. Didn't take that LONG as TREND chart was still pointing down when that move started. Now, TREND chart has pointed up again.
11:26pm PRICE action (to me) has been pretty lousy so far...PPFs, followed by PPFs - Consolidation. Will have an early night if this doesn't change.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

James,
I read your conversation with the 'Anonnymous' commenter. I would not entertain this kinda question if I were you though.

btw, Just wondering if you are able to put up some simple chart of your analysis?

Nice blog. Keep it up. I like the way you log your action with time stamp.

Gav

Anonymous said...

James,
I read your conversation with the 'Anonnymous' commenter. I would not entertain this kinda question if I were you though.

btw, Just wondering if you are able to put up some simple chart of your analysis?

Nice blog. Keep it up. I like the way you log your action with time stamp.

Gav

gerimegaly said...

Hi TraderGav,

nice of you to pop by...
Thx for your kind comments & encouragement. Managed to settle your Tradestation Platform issues? BTW, I hope Michelle has been treating you well...she's one of the nicest brokers I've come across.

I would love to put up some charts, but the non-disclosure terms I signed with my mentor prevents me from doing so. If you noticed, I do not even explain some of the trading jargon I use. I really do not want to get myself into trouble with my Mentor - especially when he was extremely kind and generous to me when I first learned his method. My acknowledgement of him & his work, and the link to his website is my way of thanking him (PS. I do not earn any fees from him by doing so - unlike the other affiliate programs on my blog).
As it is, an ex-student (Singaporean) of my Mentor has already started his own trading course since Oct 2004, to sell to the Asia Pacific region - much to the chagrin of my Mentor. So sorry but I do hope that you understand my position.

As to the time stamping of trades, I try as much as possible to be quick (don't want to be seen as "taking a trade, after the fact")...Not easy trying to update a post, re-publish the blog and execute a trade, all at the same time. That's why, a visitor should refresh my blog, during trading hours, to actually see the posts being added...
Actually, the whole purpose of this is more for me to review my trades, during trading hours & the day after. So that I will know & see clearly why such trades were taken or shouldn't be taken.
Thx again for popping by...

gerimegaly

gerimegaly said...

Hey Gav,

totally forgot...maybe we should exchange links...ok with you?

gerimegaly

Anonymous said...

Hi James,
Sure, I have added you into my blogroll.
Michelle is a nice broker. I changed to Tradestation is purely due to the overall cost structure. (commission and software fee..etc).

Anyway, I still keep the account with her (for back up purpose).

Good luck for today's trading!

Gav

gerimegaly said...

good to hear that...
All the best to your trading too.