Holding On

Didn't trade last night as I brought my family up to Johor Bahru for a day trip. Caught the recently released cartoon movie, "Megamind". Was a decently fun movie and the whole family got a kick watching it. We also did quite a fair bit of grocery shopping, moving from point to point, and as well as between two hypermarts. By the time I dropped my mom & auntie off, I hit home with the wife & kids at just slightly past 11pm. Was just too tired from the day's activities to keep my eyes open, especially after a nice warm bath.

However, I did put in a single trade the night before and I managed to secure 1.25pts. Wanting to end the night on a positive note, I decided to withdraw my second trade position, for fear that I might lose my earlier gain. That proved to be an unwise move as my order to sell would have been hit and it would have given me instant gratification as PRICE moved quickly to +1.25pts in my favour (again, if only I hadn't withdrew the order).

It's just one of those times where you question yourself for not having enough belief in what you see, especially in the PRICE movements. Anyway, the market will always be there, and trade setups will always present itself. Oh, well....

Consolidation

Markets took a breather last night, with some downside bias. Initial SHORTs were the order during the early part of the trading session. Was able to garner +2.75pts from 2 trades & I called it a night, preferring to catch the episode of Fringe on the telly.

I had lost -1.50pts last Fri but with yesterday's gain, I am back to +192.50, from my original starting trading balance. It's been a ding-dong affair and I have been rather disappointed that I am still unable to "break out to the upside", in terms of my trading account balance.

But after reading a short & simple trading article written by an FX trader, it sort of allayed my concerns and it also helped me to see the bigger picture. I just need to continue doing what I'm doing, and more importantly, to be consistent in taking the trades, as they set up, according to my set of rules. In time to come, that consistency will simply result in a rise in my confidence, and as well as an increase in my trading account. Bring it on!!

Breakout...Divergence Negated.

The divergence I mentioned in yesterday's post was clearly negated when both the YM & ES did a chart breakout last night. Although LONGs were the trade setup for the night, I missed going LONG by 0.25pt and I decided to wait for the next opportunity.

However, when the next one came along, I was given a fright (though with STOPs in place) when right after getting in, they sold it down pretty heavily, and PRICE threatened to break the intermediate PRICE low. That proved to be my undoing as when PRICE action started getting volatile, I decided to get out with only +0.25pt gain , for fear that I could be left "carrying the baby", when the surge in PRICE ended. In the end, it proved to be an unwise move as that LONG, would have ended with a +4.50pt gain. Aaaaargh!! I decided to call it an early night after that.

For the record, I ended up with a net loss of -0.50pts, for all my troubles...

Divergence between the YM & the ES

Was a so-so night for me as small pre-marlet losses took out some steam in my trades and at the start of the trading session, I was concentrating on re-couping them. I finally did, but not before getting frustrated with a couple of early trades that was postive by -1.50pts, only to turn negative and hitting my STOP by -0.25pts. Eventually, the night ended with just a +0.75pt gain. Rather decent I would say, as at one point, I was down by -2.25pts.

Looking at the PRICE action of the ES & the YM, the is some divergence going on. ES has continued to move higher, powering through 25th Oct's high and it actually hit a high of 1198.00 last night, just before the close. But for the YM, it is still labouring to cross the 25th Oct high and I fear that if this continues, the YM may lead the ES lower. A sell-off in the YM would simply negate the divergence altogether as the ES would simply follow suit. In the meantime, I would be mindful of this, before getting overly bullish in the market.

Again, for the record, only +0.75pts was achieved last night...

See - Saw Account Level

It's been a see-saw kind of week for me as I gave back what I had earned on Monday. Had a couple of Break Even trades but I also had two perfectly good trade setups that I took (with unrealised profit of at least 1.50pts) go against me as I moved my STOPs nearer to Break Even levels. They turned out even more profitable as PRICE went down after hitting me. Aaaargh!!

I had mentioned yesterday that PRICE was still very much on an uptrend and it would challenge 25th Oct's high...and sure enough, it did last night and cleared that level. And if you look closely above, PRICE is now trading at 1196.00 during after market hours.

As in the words of my Mentor,

"PRICE will continue to go in the direction it is going...until it fails"

For the record, I gave up -3.00pts last night.

Consolidating My Position

It was a night of careful considerations as after last Friday's session, I was definitely in no mood to lose more ground (in terms of my account - which I am still up by +US167). Even trading the pre-market session was a no-no.

However, just at the market open, a LONG trade set-up presented itself and I told myself to take it, knowing fully that important data would be released at 10pm (Singapore Time). Just less than a minute into the LONG trade (I entered at 1186.25) , the YM jumped and this aided my position. It was such a huge push that it burst through the YM's pre-market high. But the ES refused to follow suit. I was beginning to get a bit jittery as this "divergence" between the YM & ES can have disastrous results, especially with important data to be released very shortly.

Knowing fully well that for me, today was a "accumulating points" session, I decided to take my money off the table at 1189.00 (before 10pm). The data released proved to be a good set of numbers and both the YM & ES (eventually) pushed higher. Unfortunately, both stopped short of 25th Oct's high. For the ES, it fell short by 0.25pts, at 1192.75.

Unknown to me that at this point that the morning up move was done for the day, a SHORT set up was apparent and I took it, knowing that it was still a Counter-Trend trade. PRICE was still in an uptrend and the down move is allowable, for an Oscillation down challenge, to give us a Higher Low, before PRICE heads back up again.

Taking my 1pt gain swiftly, I was rather surprise that the Oscillation challenge was getting deeper. But it didn't really mattered as by then, I had stopped my trading for the night, so that I could catch Fringe on the telly at 11pm. Only when I opened my charts this morning, that I found out that the down move was "super deep". However, it still doesn't change things. It is allowable and we should see PRICE heading back up tonight, to challenge 1193.00 - unless it starts to fail, even before that. Let's see...

For the record, I had a total of +3.75pts gained last night and it brings my account back to +346.50 from my original starting balance.

Nightmare

Last night's trading was a nightmare as I ended the session totally frustrated! Losses were really kept at a minimum at either -0.50 or
-0.75pts but it was the way PRICE whipsawed around that killed my trades.

At times, I was in the clear by +1.50pts, only to see PRICE heading back towards my entry point, and then hitting my STOP. And at other moments, either when a clear LONG or SHORT trade was setting up, I would take it, only to see PRICE swing back up (or down), to hit my STOP almost immediately. It was just one of those nights where directional trades were clearly lacking. Sigh...

For the record, my losses for the night were a total of -4.25pts.
At this point in time, I am still up by +US$167.00, from my original starting account balance. Need to protect & grow it!

Uptrend Still Intact, Despite Daily Oscillations

Looking at my Intermediate Term Chart for the ES above, you can see that the Uptrend is still intact, albeit the daily gyrations(oscillations). A warning signal will start to appear, if PRICE takes out the 27th Oct low of 1167.75 in the coming trading sessions ahead.

Impatience Rears Its Ugly Head

A quick +2pt gain just at the market open quickly turned southwards when I decided to get back in, to get "more" for the night. It turned out to be the wrong decision as I quickly lost the 2pts in two quick succession trades.

Instead of my usual calm & collected self, I was agitated that I had gained, and lost the 2pts so quickly. And before I knew it, I was literally shooting off the hip, with my doubly quick trade executions. At one point, I found myself left with an open position, purely because the SHORT that I took, with a unrealised profit of 1.5pts, quickly dissipated to just 0.50pts when PRICE started going against me.

And in wanting to close it out with at least a small gain, the market took my exit trade, but also hit my STOP Buy Limit. In other words, I was just barely out of my SHORT for less than a minute, when a new LONG trade was quickly shoved into my hands (all because I couldn't cancel the STOP Buy Limit in time)!

Looking back at this particular trade, I realised that I should not have done anything "extra" and just let the STOP get hit. PRICE was just too closed to my STOP limit, to execute an exit trade. And as the saying goes..."they were hunting for my STOPs". Indeed, after hitting my STOP and putting me in a LONG position, PRICE reversed down almost immediately and I was stopped out by -1.5pts. Aaaaargh!!

That got me even more riled up but I thank God that in it all, He provided some form of relief, because in total, before my last trade, I was down by almost -5pts! My last trade (a LONG) actually threatened to be another loser as after getting in, the YM pushed lower, but the ES held on...barely. Seeing that the market was in grossly oversold territory, I decided to move my usual STOPs of 0.75 to 1.00pts, away to around 1.25pts. It worked but the PRICE movements back up, was totally labourious.

It was a countertrend trade and I was pretty mindful not to "overstay" the trade. My entry was at 1176.75 and my target exit was 1180.75. The 2 steps up, and 2 steps back (a staircase kind of movement) in PRICE caused quite a bit of anxiety in me and when the volatility hit at 1180.25, I told myself it was enough and I got out at 1179.50. PRICE did come down to 1178.50 thereafter but it also went back up again, to hit 1180.50. However, that was the end of the countertrend move and it started going downhill after that. By then, I had already called it a night.

Opening my charts this morning, I found that PRICE actually went lower, to hit 1173.50!! But of course, that proved to be the day's low and the ES eventually closed at 1180.00

Last night's session proved to be another important reminder to me...Impatience can be a nasty bedfellow and if I am not careful, it can & will lead me down the slippery slope of disaster! I really, really have to keep a tight rein on it.

For the record, my loss for the night turned out to be only -2pts.