Review of last night's trades. The ES continued its upward move at the start of last night's session. Although I have been taught to trade in the direction of the TREND, I have also been told to be cautious, especially if the current move is a continuation of the day before's strong move. Point to note: In order for us to move higher, we would need to establish a higher low in PRIME, on the TREND chart, which, we have yet to. This higher low would give us Leg 2 of the Bear Break. So, last week's low of 1365.50 must not be breached on any down move from here.
12:32pm Baring any wild swings on Globex, we should see some downward bias for tonight's trading session. Key level to invalidate this downward bias would be 1389.25
10:45pm Just stepped into the house...Was at my daughter's kindergarten concert earlier. Looks like the downward bias, as posted this morning is playing out. Some signs of bottoming, but need a confimation before going LONG - Why LONG? TREND chart has turned up. So, am looking for a PPF (Minor) to possibly go LONG.
10:53pm Putting a Buy STOP at 1384.75
10:57pm Looks like the market is not ready to give us that bottom. Some weakness (in this upward move) shown on the Trading chart, with the " Match PRICE " at 1384.50 - Am leaving my Buy STOP there at 1384.75
11:02pm Buy STOP activated. I'm LONG. Giving a bit more space for this LONG - STOP at 1383.25
11:06pm PRICE not moving as fast as I would like it to...Playing a bit safe here. Moving STOP to 1384.25
11:11pm Out at 1385.00 / +0.25pts - " Match " followed by PF (on the Trading chart) was my reason for getting out of this LONG.
11:15pm Interesting...PRICE in PRIME territory on the Trading chart. Are we seeing a confirmed bottom? TREND chart still pointing up. Will 1380.25 be the end of Leg 2 of our Bear Break? Let's observe...
11:21pm 2 PRIME PPFs in a row (on the Trading chart) - CONSOLIDATION. Will see if a minor PPF of Resistance will happen. If it does, I'm going SHORT.
11:24pm It just did !
11:24pm SHORT 1383.75 / STOP 1384.75
11:27pm Moving STOP to 1384.50
11:31pm Out at 1382.75 / +1.00pt
11:35pm That was a close one...phew.
11:46pm Missed that LONG. TREND chart has turned up again.
11:49pm Will stand aside at the moment. Waiting for a pull back (next Oscillation) to go LONG. 11:50pm On the TREND chart, 1380.25 looks set to be Leg 2 of the Bear Break, as we are fast approaching PRIME (on the TREND chart). To fully validate the 3 Legs of the Bear Break, this move up must take out 1393.00
12:03am Oh oh...PRICE approaching PRIME on the Trading chart, but TREND chart looks like it's turning down. Have to be cautious here, with a LONG.
12:10pm TREND chart turning down without hitting PRIME. Are we gonna see a stair-step upward move? Or are we not done with Leg 2 of the Bear Break? Will watch for a key level on the TREND chart to give us some idea where PRICE is heading. That key level would be 1382.50 - A Breach of this level will see us challenging 1380.25
12:34am Putting a SELL Stop at 1384.50
12:42am SHORT trade not triggered. Removing it.
12:43am Hang on...putting the SELL Stop in again at 1384.50
12:45am SELL Stop triggered at 1384.50 / STOP 1386.00
12:48am In order for this SHORT to be profitable, it must first take out 1384.25 - And then followed by 1382.50
12:54am Whoa...a close one there. We're not out of the woods yet. 1384.25 must Breach.
12:59am Man, this lunch time chop is killing me...
01:01am Stopped / -1.50pts.
Calling it a night. 3 Trades - 2 Winners / 1 Loser.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
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6 comments:
just an observation: u say tht u have been taught to trade in the direction of the trend, but u don't seem to follow tht advice. and this is not the first time either.
e.g. price has broken out of the bear trend and is continually moving up. why short? you mention caution but there are no signs of failure to indicate price is coming down. why not go long and trade with the trend?
thx for your comments...and your interest in my blog. Judging from your comments, you must have been following very closely to my posts...either with keen interest in the method that I've learned, or just with great doubt & scepticism.
Whichever the case, I believe thru your keen observation, you would have also noticed that I am daytrading the ES. I am NOT Swing Trading.
As such, the method I learnt also points out that there are Ups & Downs (like a wave). That is, when it is done going up, it will go down to challenge the low. And when it is done challenging the low, it will challenge the top.
The TREND that I commonly mention in my posts is short term in nature, and is NOT meant for Swing Trades.
UNFORTUNATELY, I am bound by non-disclosure terms(that I signed with my mentor) to explain in details what I've learned. Even the term "failure", which you used (and I use on my posts) means completely two different things, to you &, to me.
If you would like to know more of the methodology, please visit my mentor's website at www.agmarketlogic.com
Lastly, I appreciate your comments and attention to details...But rest be assured, (like I explained to those who have emailed me personally before), I am NOT here to sell you a course based on the method I learned, or use (other than the adverts of other courses on my blog - they are meant for passive income for me, for my efforts in maintaining this blog). My blog merely serves as a reminder, to me, of my ongoing journey & struggles in achieving my dream of financial freedom / independence thru futures trading.
gerimegaly
PS. Please note that I DO NOT get any referral fee from Bill (my mentor)...My recognition to his work & his website thru my blog's link is due solely to the fact the he was extremely generous to me, in teaching me his methodology.
dude relax:) no one's having a go at you. i'm asking a really simple question. don't read anything more into it.
i'll try again...i'm aware that 'there are Ups & Downs' in price but the question was why you took the down trades and not the up trades when price was clearly oscillating higher?
It's really strange that you sense that I'm frustrated, or think that I am unhappy that you are "having a go at me"...I never even harbour such thoughts in the first place!LOL...
And when I wrote my reply to you, I was as level headed as I could be. I don't know why sometimes a written reply can be taken as otherwise?
Anyway, as I mentioned in my earlier reply, there are some rules that the method has, which allows one to SHORT or LONG, even when the TREND may be otherwise...and unless you are privy to Bill's method or have learnt the methodology, I can't explain more than what has already been said on this blog.
Just to answer your query in the methodology terminology: " A SHORT trade is still possible, with a Minor PPF, and with the TREND chart pointing down, although we are still in a BULL TREND ".
haha, dude just relax:) nowhere have i asked you to disclose any proprietary info so don't worry.
just a simple question: why didn't you take any long trades when price was clearly oscillating higher?
so far you are just trying to justify why you can go short. that's not what i was asking.
i hope you can see the difference.
It sure looks like you like to use " dude relax " with every start of your sentence...
Anyway, before I answer your question, my observation is that you are probably a student of Jason's...as you seem to use terms similar to what I use.
My answer to your persistent question is very simple. My STOPS are generally not more than 1-1.5pts. So taking a LONG, when there is a "possibility" of a deeper pullback, would stop me out. So, wouldn't it be better to take a SHORT instead? I've had so many trades in my earlier trading days(1 1/2yrs back) where I went LONG, only to find that I was just "too early", and got stopped out. Was very very frustrating.
I am not proclaiming to be an expert on the ES, but I've seen enough of its behaviour to roughly know, coupled with the rules, when a LONG would be detrimental ( although you keep saying that "oscillation is pointing higher" ). I wouldn't be caught SHORTing, if the oscillation is going higher...A PPF is my justification for going SHORT. Period.
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