Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Leg 2 of Bull Break?

Review of last night's trades. Clearly, my 2 trades last night were speculatively in nature and were based on my close observation of the ES for the last 3 odd years. They were TOTALLY aggressive in nature, in the "eyes" of the methodology I've learned. But as I said last night, the two trades were actually profitable, but I had pre-conceived ideas of getting more points from it. Both could have been decently profitable at +1.25 & +1.50 pts. I had also clearly forgotten a personal trading rule, which was to take whatever decent points given, when I am in an agressive trade. So, to recap the points I've learned last night:
1) Never trade with pre-conceived ideas. Be prepared to go with the flow of the market, especially when the movement seems slow, and draggy.
2) Take whatever decent points given, when in an Aggressive Trade.

Will post my take on last night's eventual PRICE movements once my charts are up. Drop by again later...
08:55am Okay, I'm back...Looking at last night's overall PRICE movement, we were in PRIME (TREND chart) at 1392.25 and we were given a Minor & PRIME PPF(1391.50 at 01:30am) on the Trading chart. Would this be the top/high of Leg 2 of the Bull Break?
If it is, and in order for Leg 3 to continue its downward move, the first Key Level to watch would be 1387.00, which is our last PRIME Support on the Trading chart. If this level is breached, then look for PRICE to test 1384.50, 1382.50 & then 1379.50 (End of Leg 1 of the Bull Break). Once 1379.50 is breached, all 3 Legs of the Bull Break would be complete.
10:34am I looooove sushi, but to eat 52 pieces in 20mins? I dunno...click on the video above to watch.
03:37pm Current Globex PRICE movement seems to suggest that we may REVERSE this Leg 3 of the Bull Break. Why? Because current PRICE high on Globex is in effect just 0.25pts away from last night's session high and if we go on to breach 1393.75, we would then continue the BULL TREND.
10:17pm We have officially moved back to the Bull Trend. 1393.75 was breached, as of 09:38pm. But being a daytrader, there are rules within the methodology that allows me to SHORT, even though it is a Bull Trend. Of course, these signals must take place before I can even go SHORT. I am not so stupid as to stand in front of a "speeding train".
10:36pm SHORT 1391.50 / STOP 1392.50
10:39pm Watching closely...may take profit.
10:40pm Out at 1390.25 / +1.25pts
10:44pm Reason for the SHORT was because of a Minor PPF at 1392.75 (10:34pm) on the Trading chart, and with the TREND chart about to turn down.
10:46pm TREND chart still pointing down. We need to challenge PRIME Support (1379.50) on the TREND chart to confirm the Support, before we can bring this baby back up to a higher high. May not SHORT here anymore, as we are seeing a 3X Divergent Bottom on the Trading chart. Will wait for a challenge of PRIME Resistance (a slightly more sustained pull back of this down move) on the Trading chart to go SHORT again.
10:56pm Remember my "speculative" SHORTS yesterday? Well, I am seeing those same observations (not the rules of the methodology) again...But this time, it is a speculative LONG.
11:01pm LONG 1388.50 / STOP 1387.25
11:02pm This trade will not be like last night's. I've learnt my lesson.
11:04pm Out at 1388.75 / +0.25pts
11:06pm Hahaha...look at how "they" got me there? Thought there was a failure, and that's why I got out...instead, "they" pushed it higher.
11:07pm PRICE is now in PRIME Resistance on the Trading chart. SHORTS are still valid. No failure yet, for this down move.
11:11pm SHORT 1388.50 / STOP 1389.50
11:13pm This SHORT must take out 1387.25
11:14pm Out at 1386.50 / +2.00pts
11:19pm I am not trying to toot my horn, but this is precisely what I was trying to explain to the "Anonymous Poster", who on the 8th of Nov, persistently asked me why I was shorting when PRICE was Oscillating Higher...If PRICE was oscillating higher, I wouldn't be shorting, but because a Minor PPF was spotted, and coupled with the TREND chart turning down, that was reason enough to SHORT, as shown by the 2 main trades (eh...forget the second trade, as it was speculative in nature, and not within the rules...more of within "my" rules. LOL).
11:24pm As mentioned in my earlier post at 10:17pm, today's high of 1395.00 has pulled us back into a Bull Trend. But in order to bring us higher, we need to challenge & confirm the last support low 0f 1379.50. As long as this down move doesn't breach 1379.50, and we fail in going down (meaning a higher low is created), we will start to move back up to challenge 1395.00, and hopefully continue the Bull Trend.
11:35pm Am watching by the sidelines...not wanting to risk my profit. Will only consider a LONG, once a PPF occurs.
11:50pm LONG 1384.25 / Tight STOP at1383.50
11:52pm Reason for this LONG? Minor PPF on the Trading chart, and TREND chart has turned up.
11:56pm Moving STOP to B.E.
11:58pm 1385.25 is a hard nut to crack. If this move starts looking weak, I'll get out.
11:59pm Out at 1385.00 / +0.75pts - Don't like the PRICE movement. Better to secure the profit.
12:03am Remember, we still need a PRIME PPF to confirm the bottom. What we had earlier, in the Minor PPF, is only a minor confirmation. In other words, PRICE can still go down, until we get that PRIME confirmation.
12:06am I'm done for the night. 4 Trades - 4 Winners.

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