Review of last night's trades. What a difference a day makes! ES basically ended where it ended on Monday. Monday's session low of 1426.75 is not too far away. And that being last PRIME Support on the Trading Chart, we are definitely in danger of losing that to the bears! not before any pullback, of course. Some temporary respite may be in store tonight seeing we have a 3 X Divergent Bottom on the TREND Chart near the close of the session. Honestly, I wouldn't get too comfotable with LONGs at this point in time.
As mentioned the other day, the BULL TREND is still very much intact (based on the Longer Term Chart). However, keep a good look out for 1412.25, it being the last PRIME Support, on the Longer Term Chart. Breaking this level would effectively give us Leg 1 of a Bull Break, on the Longer Term Chart.
PS. I've bought a new mouse (actually, a second-hand one)...Came across a thrift shop just now before lunch, and I managed to only pay S$2 for it. It's working pretty well. So I'm quite happy to live with it until it, eh...sshhhh, not too loud...These "things" can be very sensitive, and they tend to break down on you if you complain too much about "them". LOL
Oh...I nearly forgot. I wanted to let all of you know that I've started another blog called YourFootballPoll.
Football (or Soccer, if you come from the US) is one of my other passions/interests and so it seemed fitting that I should start one.
At the moment, the blog is concentrated on predicting the outcome of matches and hopefully by today, some web polls will be available on the blog to see your own predictions/polls or of other fans. For a start, I've placed my own predictions for this coming weekend's FA Cup matches involving EPL Premiership Teams. Hope to see more of you football fans there. Cheers!
10:37pm Waiting for something clearer & less aggressive.
10:53pm Will be looking for a SHORT here if we get a PRIME PPF of Resistance. Or even a Minor PPF.
11:03pm We have just created Leg 1 of a Bull Break on the TREND Chart
11:05pm Had no safe trade. No PRIME PPF to go SHORT and no Minor PPF to go short.
11:12pm SHORT 1424.75 / STOP 1425.75
11:14pm This SHORT has to clear 1423.75 first. If it doesn't, I have to get out.
11:15pm STOPPED at 1425.75 / -1.00pt
11:16pm Got "faked-out".
11:18pm Incidentally, that was a conservative trade. It was a PRIME PPF.
11:20pm SHORT 1424.00 /STOP 1425.25
11:23pm Tonight's not my night. STOPPED at 1425.25 / -1.25pts
11:33pm Possibility the end of Leg 1. Let's see if we get a PRIME PPF of Support to go LONG.
11:43pm Aggressive SHORT at 1427.00 / STOP 1428.00 - Due to 3 X Divergent Top/Resistance.
11:47pm STOPPED at 1428.00 / -1.00pt. I'm done. Really frustrating when they just hit my STOP and head back into the direction of my trade.
11:52pm See my frustration? Has happened a couple of times recently. STOPs are just too tight. Have to look into this. 3 Trades. 3 Losers.
Friday, January 26, 2007
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13 comments:
hi Geri,
i can understand your frustration. Stoploss is always a headache and it's the most difficult factor in a volatile environment. You seem to get the underlying trend right most of the time only to be hampered by narrow stoplosses. Perhaps increasing it by 0.5, tht may make a diff. Good luck!
Hey Sage,
thx for dropping by...
Yeah, I am trying to fine-tune my trading. It is hard to tell when a TRENDing day occurs.
I've tried to place higher STOPs before, only to see PRICE coming back up to hit me. On other times, I decide to keep STOPs tight & PRICE hits me and drops like a rock!
I'm still trying to find that balance. What's gonna happen is that I would probably curtail my day-trading and instead, move towards swing trades (like yourself).
hi geri,
agreed with Sage, your stops are too tight. I think you are using prologic method (pf) for your entry. I do not think this is good way for your entry especially in the volatite market.
It does not make any different if you switch to swing with this pf method. Prologic method is good for reading trend only but never use pf for entry/exit. It could not work at all.
cms
cms
Hi cms,
interesting comments. Unfortunately, PFs are what I have been taught to use my entries & exits...unless of course, I have been grossly mistaken since understanding the method.
Are you Bill's student by any chance?
oh...I forgot that I have not done an update of my profile. I had taken it off recently to re-do it. I had mentioned previously that I learnt my trading method from Bill Schamp.
hi geri,
I am not Bill's student but I got a chance to read his trading manual from his paid website 2 years ago. I also read his recent copy but noted not much changes except including ERG histogram along with pf when entering trade.In my view, this may not solve the early entry problem but add more confusion with another lagging indicator.
cms
Hi cms,
early trades are part & parcel of trading. I know that some of Bill's students do face this problem. However, this is not the only problem they face. Understanding the whole concept of the methodology is another issue.
PFs are the only entries & exits I have learnt from Bill. I had the opportunity of learning his method thru the chatroom sessions back in Jan/Feb 2005. I did not even understand the manual back then. Thru the sessions, I was able to learn & understand the method...up to about 90-95%. And when he came to S'pore for the first time in May 2005, I attended his class & from there, he filled in the gaps I had missing in my understanding. However, trading "live" was a challenge and it took me quite a while to put the two together. I put in many hours, looking at PRICE movement, up to the wee hours of the mornings.
Being a "part-time trader, I have found this process of being consistent to be a long drawn one, as staying up late into the night, every night, can drain one physically & mentally.
On your last note on the histogram...I do not even know how it is being applied. I have only glanced thru his latest book, and have not tried this new indicator.
At the end of the day, I only trade PRICE. The indicator is just a guide. But having "eye-balled" the ES charts for such a long time, I have become familiar with certain nuances of the ES & this helps me in protecting my trade. That's why most of the time, my STOPs are so tight.
As my blog's headline says it: "I am on a journey". It'll take time for me to perfect my trades and I will take it in my stride to ensure that I get it right. Cheers!
hi,
Thanks for your input.
Hopefully your pf's entry/exit gives you more profitable ES trading in the long run.
cheers!
cms
they (the PFs) had better...LOL
BTW, out of curiosity, what method do you personally use?
Do you trade the ES, or other indexes?
hi,
I trade only ES for the past 4 years as this product is very liquid and is feasible for intra-day trading.
I am using Bill's method and parameter(ERG) for trend determination ( confirmed support or resistance at prime level) and I trade only prime to prime. I used breakout system(Fractals) to trigger trade so as to minimise possible early entry. It work well so far as compared in my early day of trading using Bill's pf entry. This is why I write to highlight potential problem on pf to you so that you will pay attention. Wrong or right, your P/L will speak for itself.
Happy trading!
cms
Hi cms,
am rather confused here...you mentioned in your earlier reply that you are not Bill's student, and yet you are using his method??? How is this so?
Actually, one of my main problem (as I see it) is not so much of early entries but more of tight STOPs. Of course when you trade PRIME to PRIME, you will have a further STOP. At this point however, I am not willing to take more than 1pt loss per trade. And my maximum loss per session is 2 pts.
hi,
I mentioned that Bill's method is good in trend reading with the use of ERG (343/2401) but the entry with pf is not that perfect due to early entry problem as experienced by many of his student. Therefore I use it only for trend reading with the recommended parameter for chart setting as proposed in the manual.
I used 343 chart as trading chart where I apply break-out for entry instead of pf. I always go for the set-up with stop within 2 pts limit.
I got chance to access the manual from the friend of mine who shared it with me including the current version. unfortunely the revised version just add in histogram as added indicator along with pf for triggering trade. I prefer quality trades rather than go for quantity with tight stop. Too hectic for me!
Happy trading!
cms
Hi cms,
I think you read my reply wrongly...I wasn't asking about "how you trade". I am aware of what the method is. I was actually asking you as to how you are using Bill method to trade, but yet you are not his student. So I guess you learnt it thru your friend...
For me, my tight STOPs are not because of wanting to have quantity, but more of not wanting to lose more than what I am comfortable with.
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