Saturday, January 13, 2007

Pre-Holiday Bullishness

Review of last night's trades. A trader friend of mine once told me that he read somewhere that the trading session before a holiday is normally bullish. Well, last night was spot on. The ES continued with the previous night's uptrend move, albeit a pullback at the opening, that proved to be a chance for those who missed the action the night before to load up and to rally into the US long weekend. We are now 3 & 3/4 points away from the high of 1445.00 achieved on 15th Dec 2006. It looks like the Bull TREND is still very much intact, on the longer term chart. Putting yourself in front of a speeding train can be very detrimental to one's trading account. Many traders (myself included) always conclude that the only way to SHORT the market is to load up on PUTS & SHORTS when there is extreme bullishness. But then, how do we measure bullishness? Overbought indicators? Extreme Volume? You have to have very deep pockets to withstand the onslaught of the Bulls when taking such views (or Bears, when going LONG).
In my journey, I constantly have to remind myself that the methodology I learnt takes into consideration PRICE Failures, especially CONFIRMED Failures, in the direction of the TREND, that makes my trade safe, and conservative. I, too, have many times, fallen into the idea of just shorting, because PRICE/or the market, has run up "too high & too fast". And boy, does the market punish you !

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