Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Bull Trend on Track

Review of last night's trades. Wow! What a wild ride the markets had last night...! Before I logged off, I talked about needing a PRIME confirmation of Support (bottom). At that point, I had stated that there was only a Minor PPF, which was a minor confirmation of a bottom, which was not good enough to signal a bottom, and that we needed a PRIME PPF, to give us a confirmed bottom of the whole down move after the opening bell. Well, we got that PRIME confirmation on the Trading chart, shortly after I logged off, and that was at 01:10am, where PRICE printed a PRIME higher low of 1384.00 on the Trading chart. And with the TREND chart already in PRIME territory and pointing up, that was the best safe signal to go LONG. Looking from that point onwards, there was only one illogical oscillation (at 03:01am, which a lower low oscillation occured), but that was quickly cleared up with a higher high, and a higher low. Getting a few decent points from this upward move would have been quite satisfying...So, in conclusion, we DID make a higher low, and as posted, this higher low was very much needed to bring us higher, which eventually resulted in a session high of 1399.25 - The Bull Trend is on Track.

09:39pm PRICE was consolidating at the close of last night's session & Globex PRICE movement is no better. Will wait for clearer direction before taking action.
10:36pm No trade set-ups so far...
10:40pm TREND chart has just turned up. Lets see if we get an upward move here...
10:42pm Will wait for a pull back (a higher low) to go LONG - Why? Well, still no failure in PRICE yet, on the upmove from yesterday. But with a little caution thrown in...because we are wintessing a 2X Divergent Top on the TREND chart.
10:50pm Nearly went LONG there...but didn't. Would have been an early entry. These "fake-out" moves are very common on the ES. So, like a "broken record" : MORE SCREEN TIME ! MORE SCREEN TIME ! to one & all...
10:56pm PRICE movement attempting another PF for a LONG trade.
10:57pm Missed that LONG altogether...Will wait.
11:05pm LONG 1400.00 / STOP 1399.00
11:09pm Stopped at 1399.00 / -1.00pt
11:11pm Looks like we may see a SHORT later. Would want to see PRICE breach 1398.25 first. If that happens & a Minor PPF ensues after that on the Trading chart, I will go SHORT.
11:15pm TREND chart has just turned down. Let's see if we get a Minor PPF here to go SHORT.
11:22pm SHORT 1399.00 / STOP 1400.00
11:27pm Moving STOP to 1399.50
11:29pm Stopped at 1399.50 / 0.50pts. This baby just doesn't want to go down, even with a Minor PPF. Will do one last trade, before I call it a night...
11:31pm SHORT 1398.75 / STOP 1399.50
11:34pm Stopped at 1399.50 / 0.75pts
11:35pm Frustrating. Very frustrating. The Minor PPFs to go SHORT did not work today. I guess we are just too near the " Magical Round Number " of 1400.00 - Will quit to minimise the loss. 3 Trades / 3 Losers
11:38pm Now PRICE is moving in the direction of my SHORT...Grrrr. I guess we shouldn't "play" in the vicinity of the " Magical Round Number "...Anyway, it gives me a reason to stop for the night, and to catch up on some shows on the telly. G'nite all...
11:47pm Just a thot, before I go...PRICE may possibly want to do a PRIME PPF to confirm the current top/resistance of 1401.00. Watch for it...Let's see if I get it right when I open my charts tomorrow morning. Okay, okay...I'll go now.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Geri

I'm a new student of this method. The biggest frustration we see is the number of early entries and learning how to cope with them.

Sometimes one needs to endure 3 or 4 of these before price is ready to turn.

Do you have any statistics for the % of early entries for the ES?

Keep up the good work.

gerimegaly said...

Hi,

I can understand your frustration...
I too, had that problem at the very start and frankly, in my opinion, the only way to overcome this problem is to have lots and lots of screen time...and just concentrate on one particular index future, or currency future you want to trade in. By this, I mean that you know the index so well that whatever PRICE movements it presents you, you will "know" the chances of the trade going in your favour, or against you.

Bill, during the chatroom days in Jan/Feb 2005 would often tell us that " once you get out of a trade, see what happens next "...I would add to that: " remember that movement & don't forget it "...

Unfortunately, I do not have such statistics...and thx for your kind words & encouragement.

Lastly, just for my records, are you from Singapore, or elsewhere? Just wondering how far my blog is reaching, that's all...
Cheers!

gerimegaly

Anonymous said...

I'm in Sg.

gerimegaly said...

oh...ok. Another Logic student..that's good.
If you don't mind me asking, which class were you in?

gerimegaly

Anonymous said...

Hi Geri,

The time posted for trades are local Singapore time or US EST?

Thanks

Regards

gerimegaly said...

no worries...they are all in Singapore time.

gerimegaly